Foresight is not prediction
Strategic planning inevitably involves assumptions about the future.
A programme may assume that population trends will continue, demand will grow, technology will develop in a particular direction or existing institutions will remain capable of delivering an intervention. Some assumptions will prove broadly correct. Others will not.
Strategic foresight provides a structured way to examine that uncertainty.
The European Commission defines foresight as the exploration of different possible futures and the opportunities and challenges they may create. It explicitly distinguishes this from predicting or forecasting a single future. The OECD similarly describes strategic foresight as a systematic approach to exploring plausible futures in order to anticipate and prepare for change.
The purpose is therefore not to identify what will happen, but to ask:
What could happen, what would it mean, and what should we do differently today?
Start by identifying drivers of change
A useful foresight process begins with the forces that could change the operating environment.
Some are established long-term trends: demographic ageing, urbanisation, technological development or changes in land use. Others may be weaker signals whose future importance remains uncertain.
Horizon scanning provides a structured approach to identifying emerging developments and early signals of change. Megatrend analysis examines larger and longer-term transformations that may affect several policy areas simultaneously.
Both methods are used by the European Commission and OECD as part of strategic foresight practice.
The objective is not to create an exhaustive list of trends. It is to identify the developments that could materially change the problem being addressed, the population affected or the effectiveness of the proposed response.
For regional or sectoral strategies, this may mean combining demographic, economic, technological, environmental and institutional evidence rather than extrapolating a single indicator.
Use scenarios to explore uncertainty
Scenarios become particularly useful when several important drivers are uncertain or could interact in different ways.
A scenario is not a forecast. It describes a plausible future context and allows decision-makers to examine its implications.
For example, a regional development strategy might need to consider different combinations of population change, labour availability, technological adoption, investment and accessibility. An agricultural strategy could face alternative trajectories for farm structure, markets, environmental conditions and generational renewal.
The scenarios do not need to identify which future is most likely to be useful.
Their value comes from making assumptions visible and showing how the same policy may perform under different conditions.
The Commission identifies scenario development and exploration as a foresight method and specifically highlights the use of scenarios to assess and stress-test policy options. The OECD likewise includes scenario planning among its principal strategic foresight methods.
Stress-test policy choices
Once plausible scenarios have been developed, existing strategies or proposed interventions can be tested against them.
A useful question is:
Would this policy still make sense if important assumptions changed?
An investment may perform well under strong population and demand growth but poorly under demographic decline. A policy depending heavily on particular skills may become difficult to implement if labour shortages intensify. An intervention based on current technology may need to adapt if adoption accelerates faster than expected.
Stress-testing can reveal three useful categories.
Some interventions remain valuable across several futures. Others work well only under particular conditions. A third group may require adaptation if specific signals begin to emerge.
This helps shift planning away from a single assumed future and towards robust and adaptable policy design.
The European Commission explicitly uses foresight to support the development of policies that are robust and future-proof and to examine policy options against alternative future scenarios.
Connect scenarios to decisions
A foresight exercise has limited value if it ends with a set of interesting future narratives.
Its findings should influence decisions.
Scenarios can help organisations reconsider objectives, compare policy options, identify investments that need greater flexibility, establish contingency measures or determine which developments should be monitored particularly closely.
They can also expose assumptions that were previously implicit.
If a strategy succeeds only under continued population growth, stable public finances or rapid adoption of a particular technology, that dependency should be visible to decision-makers.
The OECD’s Strategic Foresight Toolkit uses a process that moves from examining disruptions and challenging assumptions through scenario development and stress-testing to actionable planning. Its emphasis is on helping policymakers design policies that remain robust and adaptable across different plausible futures.
Foresight is therefore most useful when it is connected directly to strategic choices rather than treated as a separate forecasting exercise.
Combine foresight with evidence
Foresight does not replace conventional research.
Good scenario development depends on evidence about current conditions, historical trends, emerging developments and the mechanisms connecting them.
Quantitative analysis can establish the scale and direction of existing trends. Literature and policy research can identify drivers of change. Interviews and expert engagement can reveal emerging issues that are not yet visible in established datasets. Territorial analysis can show where the same trend may have different consequences.
Foresight brings these forms of evidence together to explore what they could mean under alternative future conditions.
This makes it particularly useful where decisions have long time horizons, substantial uncertainty or consequences that are difficult to reverse.
Build foresight into the policy cycle
Strategic foresight is most effective when it is not confined to a single workshop or strategy document.
Horizon scanning can identify emerging changes. Scenarios can inform policy design. Stress-testing can compare options. Monitoring can then track whether important assumptions or signals are changing.
As new evidence becomes available, scenarios and strategic choices can be revisited.
The European Commission has integrated strategic foresight into its Better Regulation approach and identifies it as relevant to policy design, impact assessment and evaluation. It uses foresight to help ensure that initiatives consider long-term trends and remain fit for future challenges.
The objective is not to eliminate uncertainty.
It is to make decisions that are better prepared for it.
RegioGro evidence
RegioGro’s work in strategic foresight and scenario development combines forward-looking analysis with policy research, territorial evidence and stakeholder expertise.
Its work on Policy Evaluation & Impact Assessment provides the complementary methods needed to examine policy problems, compare options and assess how changing conditions may affect expected impacts.
RegioGro’s agricultural, rural and regional research also provides substantive evidence on long-term structural change—including demographic trends, farm restructuring, land use and territorial development—that can inform foresight and scenario-based analysis.
